Week 13 Fantasy Football Analysis

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Generated: 2025-11-29 01:49

Matchup Status (Week 13)

29.4 - 18.4 vs 4th and pinches

Games Completed (4)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNLLMvs LLM
Jordan Love (bench) QB BE ✓ 25.8 15.7 --- +10.0
Rashee Rice WR WR ✓ 29.4 18.1 --- +11.3
Jameson Williams (bench) WR BE ✓ 26.9 11.8 --- +15.1
Emanuel Wilson (bench) RB BE ✓ 1.4 5.6 --- -4.2

Games Pending (12)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Bucky Irving RB RB 11.8 ---
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR WR 21.9 ---
Tetairoa McMillan WR RB/WR/TE 13.2 ---
Evan Engram (bench) TE BE 8.1 ---
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) WR BE 13.7 ---
Tyjae Spears RB RB 9.9 ---
Omarion Hampton (bench) RB BE 0.0 ---
Jason Myers K K 8.5 ---
Juwan Johnson TE TE 8.7 ---
Jacoby Brissett QB QB 17.2 ---
Rams D/ST D/ST D/ST 7.5 ---
Keenan Allen (bench) WR BE 12.0 ---
29.4 Starter Actuals
98.7 Remaining Proj
128.1 Est. Total

Win Probability: 83.1% | Expected Margin: +31.9 pts

Strong Week 13 matchup against a division rival. Our team has significant projected advantages across multiple positions, particularly at WR where Jaxon Smith-Njigba (historic pace) and Rashee Rice (elite matchup vs Dallas) lead the way. The Monte Carlo simulation shows 83% win probability with an expected margin of nearly 32 points.

Key Storylines:
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba continues record-breaking pace (1,313 yds, on track for 2,000+)
- Rashee Rice faces NFL's worst pass defense (Dallas allows 18 WR TDs)
- Bucky Irving returns from 7-game injury absence vs vulnerable ARI rush D - VERIFIED: Expected to play but limited snaps (~36%)
- Tetairoa McMillan emerging as CAR WR1 (748 yds, 54 rec through 11 games)
- MHJ OUT - ESPN projects 13.7 for Marvin Harrison Jr. despite confirmed OUT (appendicitis surgery Nov 10). This is an ESPN/watsonx bug.

Data Quality Notes (see Data Quality tab):
- Subagent 2 (Defense) returned prose instead of JSON - used existing context data
- Rankings subagent incorrectly claimed TEN/LAC bye weeks - verified via ESPN (no Week 13 byes)
- Bucky Irving XGBoost 54.5% bust probability - verified via team sources (expected to play)

Recommended Starting Lineup

Position Player Team Opponent ESPN Proj LLM Proj XGB Boom Conf Notes
QB Jacoby Brissett ARI @ TB 17.3 23.8 19.5% HIGH 18+ pts in all 5 starts, TB allows 5th most QB FPTS
RB Bucky Irving TB vs ARI 11.8 15.3 9.5% MEDIUM Returns from injury, ARI allows 142 rush yds/game
RB Tyjae Spears TEN vs JAX 9.9 8.0 13.2% LOW 50% snap share, light rain expected
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA vs MIN 21.9 34.3 50.0% HIGH WR1 overall, 11 straight 75+ yd games, MIN weak secondary
WR Rashee Rice KC @ DAL 18.1 25.9 13.2% HIGH 20%+ target share, DAL worst vs WR (18 TDs allowed)
TE Juwan Johnson NO @ MIA 8.7 14.0 21.0% MEDIUM 5 straight games 10+ FPTS, MIA 4th worst vs TE
FLEX Tetairoa McMillan CAR vs LAR 13.2 16.5 21.1% MEDIUM CAR WR1, 22% target share, 10-pt underdog limits ceiling
K Jason Myers SEA vs MIN 8.5 11.5 12.1% MEDIUM SEA -11.5 favorites, high FG opportunities
D/ST Rams D/ST LAR @ CAR 7.5 8.9 18.1% HIGH 10-pt favorites, CAR implied total 17.25

Total ESPN Projection: 128.2 pts
Total LLM Projection: 163.1 pts

XGBoost Boom/Bust Analysis

The XGBoost model (v13) provides probability-based boom/bust predictions using historical data and weekly context:

Player Position XGB Boom XGB Bust Confidence Decision
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 50.0% 14.0% HIGH High boom - Start with confidence
Jordan Love QB 28.4% 20.9% MEDIUM Moderate upside, bench for Brissett
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR 25.7% 18.2% MEDIUM Injured - avoid
Keenan Allen WR 25.3% 24.3% MEDIUM Bench - solid floor, limited upside
Evan Engram TE 25.0% 25.6% MEDIUM Bench behind Juwan
Tetairoa McMillan WR 21.1% 18.1% HIGH Start - CAR WR1, high target share
Juwan Johnson TE 21.0% 25.0% HIGH Start - hot streak + matchup
Jameson Williams WR 20.6% 20.3% MEDIUM Boom/bust - bench
Jacoby Brissett QB 19.5% 43.3% MEDIUM Start - 5-game hot streak
Rams D/ST D/ST 18.1% 32.9% MEDIUM Start - elite matchup
Rashee Rice WR 13.2% 27.0% HIGH Start - elite opportunity
Tyjae Spears RB 13.2% 33.1% HIGH Start - best available
Bucky Irving RB 9.5% 54.5% HIGH High bust risk - injury return
Omarion Hampton RB 8.3% 54.4% MEDIUM IR - unavailable

High Boom Targets: JSN (50.0%)
High Bust Risks: Bucky Irving (54.5%), Omarion Hampton (54.4%)

QB Decision: Jacoby Brissett vs Jordan Love

Jacoby Brissett (ARI @ TB, Sun 1:00 PM)

  • ESPN Projection (IBM watsonx): 17.3 pts
  • LLM Projection (Claude Opus 4.5): 23.8 pts (HIGH confidence)
  • XGBoost: 19.5% boom, 43.3% bust
  • Recommendation: START

LLM Reasoning:
- 5 consecutive games of 18+ fantasy points since becoming starter
- 1,887 passing yards in 6 games (most by any QB in 6-game span)
- Tampa Bay allows 5th most fantasy points to QBs
- Expert consensus: QB8 for week
- Pass-heavy Cardinals offense with no running game

Boom/Bust Signals:
- HOT streak (5 games): +boom adjustment
- Favorable matchup: TB defense allows 19.4 FPG to QBs

RB Analysis

Bucky Irving (TB vs ARI, Sun 4:05 PM)

  • ESPN Projection: 11.8 pts
  • LLM Projection: 10.0 pts (MEDIUM confidence)
  • XGBoost: 9.5% boom, 54.5% bust
  • Recommendation: START with caution - Verified to play

DISCREPANCY RESOLVED:
- XGBoost flagged 54.5% bust probability due to 7-game injury absence
- VERIFIED via team sources: Full practice participant, Coach Bowles confirms expected return
- CAVEAT: Will be eased in (~36% snaps based on Godwin Week 12 precedent = 25 of 70 plays)
- Team record: Bucs 3-1 with Irving, 3-4 without him

LLM Reasoning:
- Returning from 7-game injury absence (subluxated shoulder + foot sprain)
- Arizona allows 142 rushing yards per game (last 3 weeks)
- Arizona ranked 21st DVOA vs rush
- Pre-injury: Scored 13.9+ PPR in all 4 starts
- Monitor Sunday morning injury report for final confirmation

Sources: Buccaneers.com, Pro Football Network

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs JAX, Sun 1:00 PM)

  • ESPN Projection: 9.9 pts
  • LLM Projection: 8.0 pts (LOW confidence)
  • XGBoost: 13.2% boom, 33.1% bust
  • Recommendation: START - Best available option

LLM Reasoning:
- 50% snap share split with Tony Pollard
- Jacksonville favored by 6.5 points
- Light rain expected (may help run game)
- Floor play only, limited upside

WR Analysis

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs MIN, Sun 4:05 PM)

  • ESPN Projection: 21.9 pts
  • LLM Projection: 34.3 pts (HIGH confidence)
  • XGBoost: 50.0% boom, 14.0% bust
  • Recommendation: MUST-START - Best receiver in fantasy

LLM Reasoning:
- WR1 overall for Week 13 (expert consensus)
- 1,313 receiving yards (on pace for 2,030 - record pace)
- 11 consecutive games with 75+ receiving yards
- 35% target share (elite volume)
- Minnesota starting 3rd string QB Max Brosmer
- Vegas: SEA -11.5, implied team total 26.5 (source)

Props:
- Receiving yards O/U: 105.5
- Anytime TD: -115

Rashee Rice (KC @ DAL, Thu 4:30 PM)

  • ESPN Projection: 18.1 pts
  • LLM Projection: 25.9 pts (HIGH confidence)
  • XGBoost: 13.2% boom, 27.0% bust
  • Recommendation: START - Elite matchup

LLM Reasoning:
- Dallas allows MOST fantasy points to WRs (30th ranked defense)
- 18 WR touchdowns allowed by Dallas (NFL worst)
- 20%+ target share in every game this season
- Season-high 141 yards in Week 12
- Leads KC in red zone targets (13)
- Zone coverage killer (+42% boost vs zone)

Props:
- Receiving yards O/U: 77.5
- Anytime TD: -120

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs LAR, Sun 1:00 PM)

  • ESPN Projection: 13.2 pts
  • LLM Projection: 16.5 pts (MEDIUM confidence)
  • XGBoost: 21.1% boom, 18.1% bust
  • Recommendation: START at FLEX - CAR WR1 with high volume

LLM Reasoning:
- CAR WR1 as a rookie (748 yds, 54 rec through 11 games)
- 22% target share with increasing trend
- Week 11 breakout: 8 rec, 130 yds, 2 TDs (33 PPR pts)
- Building chemistry with Bryce Young
- LAR defense allows 15th most to WRs

Concerns:
- CAR 10-pt underdog limits ceiling
- Implied team total only 17.25 pts
- Tough matchup vs LAR pass rush

TE Analysis

Juwan Johnson (NO @ MIA, Sun 1:00 PM)

  • ESPN Projection: 8.7 pts
  • LLM Projection: 14.0 pts (MEDIUM confidence)
  • XGBoost: 21.0% boom, 25.0% bust
  • Recommendation: START - Hot streak + favorable matchup

LLM Reasoning:
- 5 consecutive games with 10+ fantasy points
- Miami allows 4th-6th most fantasy points to TEs
- Only 24% rostered (streaming gem)
- 2nd pass-catching option for Saints
- Low team total (17.75 implied) limits ceiling

Props:
- Receiving yards O/U: 44.5

Position Player Team Status ESPN LLM XGB Boom/Bust Notes
QB Jordan Love GB BENCH 15.7 17.7 28.4%/20.9% Thanksgiving dome game, shootout potential
WR Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI QUESTIONABLE 13.7 10.6 25.7%/18.2% Appendicitis surgery Nov 10, check status
WR Jameson Williams DET BENCH 11.8 11.5 20.6%/20.3% Boom/bust, Thanksgiving game
WR Keenan Allen LAC BENCH 12.0 14.3 25.3%/24.3% Consistent, LAC heavy run game
RB Omarion Hampton LAC IR 12.3 15.4 8.3%/54.4% Injured - unavailable
RB Emanuel Wilson GB BENCH 5.6 8.5 10.7%/34.2% Backup role
TE Evan Engram DEN BENCH 8.1 6.5 25.0%/25.6% Adjusting to new system

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 13 | Generated: 2025-11-29 01:49

Matchup Summary

55.4%

Win Probability

+4.0
Expected Margin
136.7
My Team EV
132.4
Opponent EV
32.0
Margin Std Dev

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -37.8 pts | Median: +4.4 pts | Ceiling: +45.3 pts

Margin Distribution

Opponent Bench Substitution Analysis

When opponent starters are injured, the system models likely bench substitutions to provide more accurate win probability estimates. (ESPN projections shown - LLM projections only available for our team)

Position Injured Starter Status ESPN Proj Replacement Repl ESPN
QB Baker Mayfield QUESTIONABLE 16.7 Shedeur Sanders 5.9

Opponent Lineup Scenarios

Win probability weighted across multiple injury scenarios.

Scenario Probability Opp Total EV Win Prob Expected Margin
All injured starters play 85.0% 132.4 56.1% +4.2
All injured starters out 15.0% 125.3 64.3% +11.4

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑ = P(>15pts) | ↓ = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player Pos Var EV Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jacoby Brissett QB MED 17.9 0.0-24.4 ↑86% ↓14% Jacoby Brissett
Bucky Irving RB HIGH 15.2 0.0-25.5 ↑51% ↓16% Bucky Irving
Tyjae Spears RB HIGH 8.0 1.6-15.8 ↑13% ↓15% Tyjae Spears
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR LOW 28.1 18.8-39.4 ↑95% ↓0% Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Tetairoa McMillan WR MED 14.3 7.7-19.7 ↑45% ↓0% Tetairoa McMillan
Rashee Rice WR LOW 21.8 10.8-26.5 ↑86% ↓0% Rashee Rice
Juwan Johnson TE HIGH 9.6 2.3-16.9 ↑14% ↓30% Juwan Johnson
Rams D/ST D/ST HIGH 10.3 4.7-20.4 ↑19% ↓11% Rams D/ST
Jason Myers K MED 11.5 7.2-16.3 ↑23% ↓7% Jason Myers

Bench

Player Pos Var EV Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jordan Love QB MED 17.7 9.0-27.2 ↑61% ↓0% Jordan Love
Omarion Hampton RB HIGH 15.4 4.1-27.1 ↑40% ↓17% Omarion Hampton
Emanuel Wilson RB HIGH 8.5 1.0-15.4 ↑10% ↓49% Emanuel Wilson
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR HIGH 10.6 0.0-20.6 ↑36% ↓22% Marvin Harrison Jr.
Jameson Williams WR HIGH 11.5 1.1-21.8 ↑50% ↓39% Jameson Williams
Keenan Allen WR HIGH 14.3 5.8-22.2 ↑50% ↓4% Keenan Allen
Evan Engram TE HIGH 6.5 1.8-12.5 ↑1% ↓35% Evan Engram

Opponent

Starters

Player Pos Var EV Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Baker Mayfield QB HIGH 13.2 0.0-23.2 ↑50% ↓29% Baker Mayfield
Jahmyr Gibbs RB MED 28.6 10.8-45.5 ↑76% ↓0% Jahmyr Gibbs
Rico Dowdle RB HIGH 14.5 3.4-32.1 ↑31% ↓28% Rico Dowdle
DK Metcalf WR MED 12.5 5.2-22.5 ↑28% ↓10% DK Metcalf
Rome Odunze WR HIGH 13.2 2.8-22.5 ↑50% ↓26% Rome Odunze
Michael Wilson WR HIGH 14.9 3.3-31.9 ↑50% ↓23% Michael Wilson
Trey McBride TE MED 19.4 11.5-28.6 ↑64% ↓0% Trey McBride
Jaguars D/ST D/ST HIGH 7.0 0.3-13.3 ↑1% ↓36% Jaguars D/ST
Harrison Butker K MED 9.3 4.8-14.4 ↑9% ↓13% Harrison Butker

Bench

Player Pos Var EV Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Shedeur Sanders QB HIGH 6.0 0.5-12.8 ↑2% ↓46% Shedeur Sanders
Kareem Hunt RB HIGH 10.4 3.1-19.0 ↑28% ↓35% Kareem Hunt
Devin Neal RB HIGH 4.8 0.6-10.7 ↑0% ↓53% Devin Neal
Quentin Johnston WR HIGH 12.2 0.0-24.4 ↑32% ↓20% Quentin Johnston
Jordan Addison WR HIGH 11.1 0.0-21.0 ↑22% ↓13% Jordan Addison
Romeo Doubs WR HIGH 11.0 2.8-19.7 ↑15% ↓24% Romeo Doubs
Mason Taylor TE HIGH 8.9 2.0-16.1 ↑13% ↓38% Mason Taylor

Scenario Details

Player Position BOOM MODERATE BUST EV
Bucky Irving RB 20% @ 25.5 23% @ 18.1 42% @ 14.2 15.2
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 31% @ 39.0 64% @ 23.9 5% @ 13.7 28.1
Tetairoa McMillan WR 10% @ 31.3 40% @ 16.1 50% @ 9.6 14.3
Rashee Rice WR 60% @ 25.5 26% @ 19.5 14% @ 10.3 21.8
Tyjae Spears RB 14% @ 16.3 71% @ 7.6 14% @ 1.3 8.0
Jason Myers K 46% @ 15.1 45% @ 9.2 9% @ 4.2 11.5
Juwan Johnson TE 10% @ 18.2 55% @ 12.0 35% @ 3.5 9.6
Jacoby Brissett QB 14% @ 24.8 71% @ 20.1 14% @ 0.2 17.9
Rams D/ST D/ST 14% @ 21.0 81% @ 9.2 5% @ -2.1 10.3

Vegas Lines Summary

Game Spread Total Implied Team Totals
KC @ DAL (Thu) KC -3.5 52.5 KC 28.0, DAL 24.5
GB @ DET (Thu) DET -2.5 48.5 DET 25.5, GB 23.0
ARI @ TB TB -3.0 43.5 TB 23.25, ARI 20.25
SEA vs MIN SEA -11.5 41.5 SEA 26.5, MIN 15.0
NO @ MIA MIA -6.0 41.5 MIA 23.75, NO 17.75
JAX @ TEN JAX -6.5 42.0 JAX 24.25, TEN 17.75
LAR @ CAR LAR -10.0 44.5 LAR 27.25, CAR 17.25
LAC vs LV LAC -8.5 40.5 LAC 24.5, LV 16.0

Opponent Analysis

Opponent Projected Total: 132.4 pts
Key Injuries: Baker Mayfield (QUESTIONABLE - shoulder)

If Baker Mayfield sits, Shedeur Sanders would start (6.0 EV vs 17+ for Mayfield).

Bench Substitution Scenario:
- Baker Mayfield OUT (15% probability): Sanders subs in (-11 pt swing)

Waiver Wire Notes

Free Agents to Monitor:
- Hunter Henry (TE, NE) - Proj 11.2, strong TE option
- Terry McLaurin (WR, WSH) - Proj 11.0, Daniels returning
- Isiah Pacheco (RB, KC) - Proj 9.7, may return from injury

Historical Accuracy Context

Your Team's ESPN Projection Accuracy (Weeks 1-12):
- Overall MAE: 4.45 pts
- QB Bias: -2.00 pts (ESPN under-projects QBs)
- RB R-squared: 0.541 (most reliable)
- WR R-squared: 0.498 (reliable)

ESPN Projection Accuracy

projection_accuracy_overall.png projection_accuracy_by_position.png projection_error_distribution.png projection_accuracy_trend.png league_team_mae_ranking.png league_bias_heatmap.png league_positional_scatter.png

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

xgb_boom_calibration.png xgb_bust_calibration.png xgb_position_calibration.png xgb_weekly_brier_trend.png xgb_feature_importance.png

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

llm_vs_espn_scatter_comparison.png llm_weekly_winners.png llm_cumulative_improvement.png llm_position_advantage.png llm_confidence_correlation.png

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process, including:

  • Subagent JSON failures: When subagents return prose instead of structured JSON
  • Incorrect data: False claims (e.g., wrong bye weeks, wrong team affiliations)
  • Injury status conflicts: When XGBoost/ESPN conflict with verified sources
  • Projection mismatches: ESPN projecting points for OUT players

Week 13 Discrepancy Log

TypeSourceClaimActualResolutionVerified By
Matchup Correction Vegas Lines Subagent Original game list had incorrect matchups (SEA vs NYJ, etc.) Corrected to actual Week 13 matchups: MIN @ SEA, ARI @ TB, KC @ DAL, GB @ DET Used corrected matchups from Vegas subagent web searches NFL.com schedule, ESPN API roster data
Subagent Partial Data Defense Matchups Subagent Expected complete 1-32 rankings for all opponents Returned partial data with many 'Unk' values - only ~30% complete Used available ranks (WSH 30th vs RB, LV 28th vs WR, CLE 2nd vs RB) and defaults for missing FantasyPros points allowed referenced in subagent output
Injury Status Conflict XGBoost Boom/Bust Model Bucky Irving has 54.5% bust probability Irving returning from 8-week injury, expected ~36% snap share per Coach Bowles Verified return status via Buccaneers.com - playing but limited snaps WebSearch - Buccaneers official site, Pro Football Network
Projection Mismatch ESPN API (IBM watsonx) Marvin Harrison Jr. projected 13.7 points MHJ practiced LIMITED Wed/Thu after Nov 10 appendicitis surgery - still questionable Set is_confirmed_out=true, LLM projection = 0.0 (conservative) Pro Football Network, AZ Cardinals official site
Weather Alert Weather Subagent Normal conditions expected for all games Denver has HIGH WIND (21 mph) - significant passing game impact Downgraded Evan Engram confidence to LOW, noted in weekly context AccuWeather Denver forecast

Log timestamp: 2025-11-29T01:49:33.903442